Just some ramblings….
Games publishing (as delivered through accepted mainstream media) is feeling more and more like car manufacture. There are a handful of serious players a few tens of quirky niche marques and thousands of rusting wrecks by the roadside.
I find it difficult to see how rising consumer expectations, and associated development costs can be accomodated in what is a pretty static market. Costs for original content are nearly doubling per cycle but the audience isn’t growing at anything close to that rate. This is why we see and will continue to see so many sequels and iterations of titles.
I’m pretty sure we’ll lose a few familiar more developer/publisher faces before things find their ‘next gen’ level.
There are other routes to the marketplace and many unexplored types of digital entertainment that might form the basis for another development model. Hopefully there are people out there thinking outside the Hollywood blockbuster/General Motors box who are investigating these areas. They’d be projects that would be largely un-attractive to the big industry players but could be an opportunity for small developer/publishers to create their own league (to maintain the gaming metaphor).
All the best,